At the beginning of the year, I presented the main economic forecasts for the year 2025 in order to outline the outlook for credit. It was clear that it was important to keep a close eye on the external scenario and on the unfolding of the tariff policy promised by the US government, as well as the growth projections for China. A hundred days on, what was a campaign promise has begun to take shape, which is interfering with forecasts for the economy as a whole and China's growth has slowed down. Some geopolitical uncertainties, such as the wars in Ukraine and Palestine, have improved with prospects for a decrease in activity. What has really changed in the projections? In this article, the forecasts are also updated for the main economic variables and the points of attention for the coming months are highlighted.

Global GDP in deceleration The global economic scenario updated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2025 projects growth of 2.8% for global GDP. If confirmed, this result would represent a slowdown in the pace of growth compared to 2024, when global GDP grew by 3.3%. It's important to note that in the scenario published for 2025, the IMF also predicted the same growth of 3.3%, higher than that predicted now. The slowdown is expected to hit emerging economies and advanced economies with projected growth of 3.7% and 1.4% respectively. The revised projections reflect the growing uncertainty over trade tensions and their impact on global trade and production chains. Brazilian GDP growth is projected at 2.0%, according to the IMF. The figure is in line with the estimates provided by the Focus Bulletin issued by the Central Bank. This is a slowdown in the pace of growth recorded in 2024, when GDP advanced by 3.4%, according to IBGE data. This expectation of a slowdown has been forecast since last year and remains.

Persistent inflation The scenario of persistent inflation also continues. According to the IMF report, progress in the fight against inflation has lost momentum in some countries. In some cases, inflation has started to rise again and exceed targets. This is the case in Brazil. IBGE figures show that the country's official price index (IPCA) has accumulated an increase of 5.5% in 12 months, above the center and the ceiling of the inflation target, set at 4.5%. Forecasts for the IPCA have been adjusted upwards: the first Focus Bulletin of the year indicated inflation of 5.0% for 2025, but the most recent estimates point to a figure close to 5.6%.

Monetary policy on hold The forecast for the SELIC rate has remained unchanged since the beginning of the year. According to the Focus Bulletin, the basic interest rate should end 2025 at 15% per year. It currently stands at 14.25% per year. In the US, the FED has also opted for a waiting period: in the previous month, the American monetary authority kept the basic interest rate between 4.25% and 4.5% per year, awaiting new definitions on tariff policy. This caution is justified by the fear that this policy could generate new inflationary growth in the United States. A change in the expected path for US interest rates would affect the exchange rate, with significant impacts on global interest rates.

Credit and debt on the rise For various reasons, including structural ones, the projections continue to indicate robust credit growth in Brazil. However, there has been a reduction in relation to what was forecast at the beginning of the year: in December, the credit portfolio was expected to grow by 9.0%; in March 2025, it fell to 8.6%. There is a consensus that credit will continue to grow at a slower pace than that seen in 2024. This progress will take place in an environment of higher interest rates, which requires attention to data on defaults and household indebtedness. Information from credit bureaus shows an increase in the number of consumers with bad debts. In February, this figure reached 75 million. Data from the Central Bank shows that household indebtedness has risen again, reaching 48.7% in January 2025. This scenario of more expensive credit and greater commitment of income to debts calls for caution to avoid over-indebtedness and an increase in defaults.

In a nutshell, At the same time, international dialog and cooperation will be fundamental to adjusting economic relations, avoiding a resurgence of inflation and a sharper slowdown in the global economy. Domestically, the uncertain situation demands an economic policy focused on stability, in the face of growing financial vulnerability as evidenced by default rates.