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This year's economic activity data has been full of surprises. A inflation The GDP also reacted and grew more than expected. As we head into the fourth and final quarter, how is this data impacting the consumer's financial situation? Understanding the momentum of the consumer is a fundamental step in evaluating the performance of the consumption and, in particular, consumption through credit.

There are several indicators that allow us to look at the financial health of consumers. Let's start with unemployment. This variable is measured by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and measures the number of people who are out of work and looking for opportunities. Unemployment rose during the recession that began in 2014 and during the pandemic. After reaching a peak in the first quarter of 2021 (14.9%), the unemployment rate has been falling - and even more intensely than after the recession in the middle of the last decade.

The latest data from the IBGE shows that in the second quarter of 2022, unemployment reached 9.3%. This was the lowest rate since the end of 2012. We know that the recent downward trend in unemployment has eased the plight of many families, as well as improving access to goods and services.

On the other hand, real average labor income, also calculated by the IBGE, is still much lower than before the pandemic. This income is called “real” because it corrects nominal income for the evolution of prices, allowing comparison between different periods. There has, in fact, been a recovery in income in recent months, but it is still insufficient to re-establish pre-March 2020 levels.

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By: Elias Sfeir President of ANBC & Member of the Climate Council of the City of São Paulo & Certified Advisor