recidivism

Recidivism reaches 83% of those with credit and raises alarm about the use of credit

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Card was used in around 50% of tourist purchases and continues to be the main form of payment in tourism; unified IOF makes purchases abroad more expensive; credit bureaus warn of the need to rebalance the post-holiday budget

More than eight out of ten consumers who were in default in May 2025 had already faced a similar situation in the recent past. Data from the credit bureau sector shows that 83% of the defaulters in the period were repeat offenders, i.e. they had negative records in the previous 12 months. This result reinforces the structural nature of default in Brazil and raises alarm bells about the fragility of the population's financial health.

Among the repeat offenders, 63% were already negative and received a new note in the period. Another 201,000,000 had managed to regularize their situation, but returned to default in May. Only 171,000,000 of those who were in default in May were facing the problem for the first time in the last 12 months.

“The recurrence reveals that we are facing recurring events, signaling a deeper, often chronic budget imbalance,” says Elias Sfeir, president of ANBC. For him, credit rating plays an important role in signaling risk in the market, protecting both creditors and consumers against over-indebtedness, and the long-term solution requires financial education, a responsible attitude towards the use of credit, individual diagnosis and responsible renegotiation.

The credit expansion cycle continues. According to the Central Bank, the credit-to-GDP ratio went from 48.5% in May 2020 to 54.6% in May this year. At the same time, indebtedness is also on the rise. Household income commitment reached 48.9% and defaults grew again. Approximately 47.3% of the adult population has a negative credit rating, compared to 44.9% in May 2024.

The growing use of credit is a wake-up call for the vacation period, when spending on tourism intensifies. According to Central Bank data from May 2025, international travel expenses grew by 7.2% and amounted to US$1.8 billion, compared to the same period the previous year.
Most of these expenses are financed by credit card, still the main means of payment among Brazilian tourists. According to a survey carried out by Paytour, credit cards account for almost 50% of purchases in tourist experiences. Pix has been gaining ground, with a share of around 35% and an increase of more than 50% compared to the first half of 2024. Installment plans have been widely promoted by travel agencies and tour operators as a way of increasing access to packages.

Sfeir emphasizes that the use of credit must be accompanied by planning. “Anyone who finances travel by card needs to consider the impact of the installments in the following months that will be added to commitments already made and reorganize the budget. The imbalance often starts with disregarded expenses,” he says. The risk increases as transactions abroad become more expensive. With the unification of IOF rates, all foreign currency transactions (including card purchases, withdrawals and cash purchases) are now taxed at 3.5%, eliminating the previous differential that favored cash.

In this context, credit recovery is gaining strategic importance. The bureaus act as sources of information and also as platforms for reconnecting creditors and debtors. Negotiation sessions, online consultation systems and the credit note have all contributed to the regularization of debts and financial rebalancing.

Technology reinforces this front with the use of data intelligence. Analytical tools help identify profiles with a greater chance of recovery, optimizing the approach and reducing losses. Effectiveness in renegotiation has a direct impact on the cost of credit. The higher the recovery rate, the lower the risk embedded in operations tends to be.

 

For Sfeir, the advance of credit requires a sustainable basis. “Regulatory and technological transformations are important, but they will only be effective with financial education and a responsible attitude towards the use of credit. We need to train conscious consumers, capable of using credit as a tool for inclusion and well-being,” he concludes.

 

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