The National Association of Credit Bureaus (ANBC) points out that there is room to expand the credit market in Brazil, which can boost economic growth and promote social welfare

Brazil ended 2024 with a credit-to-GDP ratio of almost 55%, according to data from the Central Bank, a level that, although growing, is still below more developed economies such as the United States, where this index exceeds 190%. This data shows that there is room for expansion of the credit market in the country, which could boost economic growth and promote social welfare. This measure compares the size of the balance of loans and financing operations with the size of GDP, to help gauge the importance of credit for the country's economy.

“In 2005, this ratio was just 28%. Since then, it has almost doubled, facilitating access to loans for consumers and companies. Credit bureaus have played an essential role in this growth, improving score models, reducing information asymmetries and increasing transparency,” says Elias Sfeir, president of ANBC. According to him, three major phases marked this evolution: 

2005-2015Accelerated expansion of credit, driven by innovations such as payroll loans and regulatory changes. Bureaus have expanded their databases, making risk analysis more precise. 

2016-2018Recession and credit restrictions. The bureaus helped to differentiate risk profiles, allowing credit to be granted more safely. 

2019-2024: Recovery driven by new programs and the use of the Positive Registry. Artificial intelligence and big data have become differentiators in credit analysis models.

In addition, changes in the credit profile were responsible for contributing to this expansion. Credit for Individuals (PF) has overtaken that for Legal Entities (PJ). In 2007, PF represented 14% of credit-GDP, while PJ, 16.6%. In 2024, PF reached 33.4%, while PJ stood at 21%. This transformation was made possible by advances in credit bureau technology.

Regarding the future of credit, the executive believes that new regulations, such as the guarantees framework and the over-indebtedness law, will continue to shape the market. “With the increasing use of alternative data on creditor behavior and predictive models, credit bureaus will continue to drive efficiency and access to credit in Brazil,” Sfeir concludes.

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