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Positive Register could inject up to R$ 82 billion into rural credit balance

Increase corresponds to 33% projected for the next ten years

São Paulo, February 10, 2020The more accurate assessment of the payment history of commitments such as loans, credit and financing, made possible by the Cadastro Positivo, has the potential to inject up to R$ 82 billion into the balance of rural credit over the next 10 years in the country, which is equivalent to an increase of 33%. With the entry of this information in the producer's credit note, the new rural credit portfolio could reach a balance of R$ 331 billion.

The conclusions are from the study Panorama of Credit for Agriculture and Livestock, which aims to help reduce transaction costs and consequently leverage the volume of credit. 

The survey was carried out by the credit bureau sector, given the current downward trend in interest rates and the increase in the share of uncontrolled resources, those directed by the private sector.

The amount of rural credit actually contracted in the 2018/2019 agricultural year was R$ 175.4 billion, 3.5% more than in 2017/2018. Of this amount, the amount contracted with controlled resources was R$ 121.3 billion, 5.5% less than that contracted in 2017/2018. 

Contracts with non-controlled resources totaled R$ 54.2 billion, an increase of 31.5% compared to the previous agricultural year. Of these resources, the LCA (Agribusiness Credit Bill) was responsible for financing R$ 29.6 billion of the contracts in 2018/2019, which represented an increase of 23.8% compared to the previous agricultural year.

Playing a fundamental role in the economy, agriculture today has 5 million rural establishments, 350 million square hectares of usable area, as well as 8.5 million workers, whose monthly wage bill is R$ 11.5 billion.

The expectation is that this scenario will change with the visibility that rural producers will begin to have with the Positive Registry, since the information on their credit history will show their financial behavior as a whole, making a counterpoint to a situation of default that, due to some isolated fact, may have occurred.

“In a negotiation with a cooperative, for example, a relationship of trust will be established based on the credit rating with inclusion of the Positive Registry, which will certainly benefit the segment, boosting microcredit and the economy,” says Elias Sfeir, president of the National Association of Credit Bureaus (ANBC).

“The survey indicates a strong trend in the expansion of rural credit and, consequently, a leap in the development of agribusiness,” adds Sfeir. 

Another expectation is that the Safra Plan, the federal government's program for financing agricultural activity, will also be impacted by the Positive Registry. The projection is that there will be an increase of R$ 74 billion in real terms (deflated) compared to 2019, going from R$ 225 to R$ 299 billion.

In addition to the gains mentioned above, the Positive Registry is expected to include 22 million Brazilians in the credit market and reduce defaults by 45%, factors that could have an even greater impact on the agricultural sector, since a heated economy encourages consumption and generates business in all sectors.

CP Impact on Rural Credit Balance

+33% or R$ 82 bi

ANBC Press Relations

Regina Pimenta: (11) 98136.6835 regina@pimenta.com

Ana Carolina Rodrigues: (11) 98674.0348 anacarolina@pimenta.com