The forecast for global GDP growth in 2025 is 2.6%. Emerging countries are expected to grow by 3.9% over the period. The projected GDP growth is 2.0%, according to the Focus Bulletin
The National Association of Credit Bureaus (ANBC) believes that in 2025 there will be uncertainty about the pace of disinflation in the world's main economies, which could lead to an increase in foreign interest rates. This would put additional pressure on the dollar, with repercussions for inflation and interest rate policy in Brazil. In the event of a sharper slowdown in inflation, the external pressures would be mitigated. As the Central Bank pointed out in he minutes of the last Copom meeting show that the external situation calls for caution on the part of emerging countries.
"On the international scene, we also have other points of attention: the tariff policy to be adopted by the United States will be crucial for inflation in that country and all the international repercussions that an eventual acceleration in prices could bring. As far as the United States is concerned, for now we only know the intentions expressed during the election campaign. We will therefore have to wait for a more concrete plan to be presented. Another relevant point is climate phenomena, which had a global economic cost of USD 320 billion in 2024, an increase of around 30% compared to 2023. Brazil has also been affected by droughts and floods," says Elias Sfeir, executive president of ANBC.
Domestically, according to the organization's analysis, 2025 inherits some of the challenges of 2024. The most urgent is to rescue the credibility of fiscal policy. Congress approved the fiscal package presented by the government with a few changes that dehydrated the original proposal. As a result, the fiscal agenda will still deserve attention, especially when we think about the medium term. The assessment of important risk agencies is that the fiscal package needs to be complemented with additional cutting measures. Restoring fiscal credibility would be a strong ally of the Central Bank in the task of anchoring inflation expectations. In the best-case scenario, "re-anchoring" could lead to a shorter cycle of interest rate hikes.
For economic activity, the projections indicate a slowdown in growth. Slowing down means, in this case, growing less than the country did in 2023. The forecast for global GDP growth in 2025 is 2.6% and for emerging economies 3.9%. The projected GDP growth is 2.0%, according to the Focus Bulletin. It should be noted that over the last few years, economic activity has consistently surprised. Yes, that may sound like a contradiction in terms. The fact is that, since the beginning of the recovery from the pandemic, GDP growth has been higher than the initial projections. If the slowdown were to be confirmed, there would be a brake on the fall in unemployment and the growth in average income.
The less favorable economic climate may have implications for the evolution of defaults and credit. In recent years, we have seen a cycle of credit growth, especially in the personal loans segment. It was this cycle that brought the credit-to-GDP ratio to 54.0% in November 2024 - the highest level since the beginning of the historical series presented by the Central Bank. As we have already pointed out in this space, the reasons for the growth in credit go beyond the economic situation and reflect a set of measures aimed at modernizing the Brazilian credit market, reducing information asymmetries and stimulating competition.
For the same reasons, despite the expected rise in interest rates, projections collected by Febraban point to a growth of 9.0% in the credit balance. Although this growth is lower than that projected for 2024, it is worth noting that the pace of progress remains significant.
"The credit bureau sector reiterates its mission to contribute to the evolution of credit discipline through innovative solutions, leveraging access to the financial system's resources, so that companies can invest and consumers have credit as a viable and fair option, always fostering, of course, sustainable credit. In the coming months, the sector will continue to monitor and contribute to the modernization of this market. We hope that in 2025 the country will be able to take new steps in favor of the economy and bringing social welfare through credit," Sfeir concludes.
