With lower growth projections, the segment is betting on innovation and data analysis to maintain the stability of the financial system
The Central Bank has revised its projections for the credit market in 2025, indicating a slowdown in the pace of growth. The figures show that the expectation for total credit fell from 9.6% to 7.7%. For individuals, the projection went from 10% to 8%, while for companies the reduction was from 9% to 7.2%.
These revisions reflect a more challenging economic scenario, with high interest rates (Selic at 14.25%), lower growth in economic activity and a less heated job market. “We are facing a time that demands more efficiency in risk analysis and credit management,” says Elias Sfeir, president of the National Association of Credit Bureaus (ANBC).
Despite the more restrictive scenario, credit bureaus play a fundamental role in maintaining the flow of credit in the economy. With accurate and up-to-date information, these institutions help to reduce information asymmetry in the market, allowing banks and financial institutions to make more assertive decisions. “The quality of information is essential for balancing the system, avoiding both excessive restriction and irresponsible credit granting,” explains the executive.
The use of technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and new scoring methodologies has allowed the sector to offer more refined and personalized analyses. This technological evolution is particularly important in the current context, as it helps to identify good payers with greater precision, even in a more unfavorable economic environment.
“What we are seeing is a growing maturity of the Brazilian credit market. The bureaus are now able to offer much more complete information in real time, which allows for more agile and secure decisions,” says the president of ANBC. This capacity for refined analysis has been fundamental to maintaining the stability of the financial system, even in periods of greater economic volatility.
For 2025, the expectation is that the segment will continue to invest in innovation, with special attention to integration with new databases relevant to credit analysis. These advances should contribute to a more dynamic and inclusive credit market, capable of meeting the needs of both consumers and companies, even in a scenario of moderate economic growth.
“Credit is one of the engines of the economy, and our role is to ensure that this engine continues to run safely and efficiently, even in the most challenging conditions,” concludes Sfeir.
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