The first projections for 2025 indicated that the cycle of credit growth would continue, even in an environment of high interest rates. At the beginning of the year, we reflected on this scenario, highlighting the main macroeconomic projections and the sources of uncertainty for the following months. Now, as 2025 draws to a close, it is possible to take a clearer look at what has been confirmed and what points of concern remain for 2026.

At the beginning of the year, projections for Brazil's GDP indicated growth close to 2%, according to the Focus Bulletin. Unlike in previous years, these estimates remained at this level throughout 2025 and were confirmed by the most recent quarterly data from the IBGE. The result indicates a slowdown in the pace of expansion of the Brazilian economy, which had shown more expressive rates in the years immediately after the pandemic.

The evolution of projections for inflation in 2025 can be divided into two moments. Between February and April, there was a deterioration in expectations for the IPCA, with the Focus Bulletin projections reaching 5.6%. From May onwards, however, the estimates fell back consistently. According to the latest Focus Bulletin, dated November 24, 2025, the change in the IPCA is expected to be 4.45%. If confirmed, this result will remain above the target of 3.0%, but will be below the forecasts made at the start of the year. It should also be noted that the US surcharges had a positive impact on inflation due to the greater supply of products on the local market.

Reacting to the up and down pace of price growth, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) kept the basic interest rate at high levels. In June 2025, the SELIC rate was set at 15.0% per year and remained at this level at subsequent meetings. In its communication, COPOM has emphasized that maintaining the prime rate at 15.0% for a “prolonged period” will be enough to bring inflation back to target. The interpretation of the length of this “prolonged period” has guided much of the market discussion over the last few weeks.

The increase in the SELIC rate had a direct impact on the interest charged at the top, both to consumers and companies. In the Corporate segment, the average interest rate went from 17.5% per year to 20.7% per year between September 2024 and September 2025. In the Individuals segment, the average rate rose from 32.3% per year to 36.3% per year. Even in this context of monetary tightening, credit continued to grow at expressive rates: for individuals, the increase was 11.0% in the comparison between September 2025 and the same month a year earlier; for business customers, the increase was 8.7%.

This advance in credit in a high interest rate environment is largely due to structural factors, reflecting the increase in financial inclusion seen in recent years. It's important to note that, at the same time as the expansion of credit, data from the credit bureau sector points to an increase in the number of consumers who have been denied credit. In October 2025 we reached a record high with more than 80M people denied credit, an increase of 9.9% compared to October 2024. Another important point is the number of indebted families, which in October 2025 reached 79.5%, an increase of 3.4% compared to October 2024.

On the external front, the Federal Reserve (FED) resumed its reduction in the basic US interest rate, with important repercussions for emerging countries. However, uncertainties persist regarding the effects of the tariff dispute, which reached its peak in the first half of the year and generated successive movements of tension and distension in the global financial markets.

Over the course of 2025, significant regulatory changes were introduced in important types of loans and financing, such as payroll loans and real estate loans. The effects of these regulatory changes on the cost and supply of credit will be measured more precisely in the coming months. Also worth mentioning is the creation of the Parliamentary Front for the Democratization of Credit, with the active participation of the bureau sector. The expectation is that this forum will contribute to expanding financial inclusion and strengthening the responsible use of credit in the country.

In summary, the economic data largely confirms the projections made at the beginning of the year, while at the same time reinforcing some points of attention for 2026: the rise in defaults, the increase in indebted families, the slowdown in the pace of growth of the Brazilian economy and the need to increase the country's potential growth through productivity gains. In the next article, we will look to the future, analyzing the challenges inherited from 2025 and discussing the trends and projections for the credit market in 2026.

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