Source: https://movimentoeconomico.com.br/ By: Patricia Raposo
Credit-to-GDP ratio reaches 54.5%, but the potential market is huge
The potential in Brazil to boost the economy with credit is "fantastic", according to the president of ANBC
The credit sector was decisive in Brazil's economic recovery in 2024, but the scenario for 2025 points to uncertainties that could impact its growth. Information from the Central Bank and the National Association of Credit Bureaus (ANBC) shows that credit has consolidated its position as one of the main drivers of the Brazilian economy. However, issues such as high interest rates, persistent inflation, fiscal challenges and climate impacts require attention.
In 2024, the balance of credit to individuals increased by 12.5%, while for legal entities it grew by 9.2%, bringing the credit-to-GDP ratio to 54.5% - still well below mature markets such as the United States, where the index is 150%. At Economic MovementElias Sfeir said that "the potential in Brazil to boost the economy with credit is fantastic". He is president of ANBC.
Among the regions, the North led growth (15.5%), followed by the Midwest (13.4%), South (13.2%) and Northeast (12.3%). Credit to legal entities also grew and reached an expressive rate of 18.3% in the North; 13.3% in the Northeast; 11% in the South, 7.5% in the Southeast and 7% in the Midwest.
In Pernambuco, credit for individuals grew by 11%, while for companies the increase was 11.6%.
NE leads credit default
This robust growth was accompanied by a slight reduction in the national average delinquency rate, which fell 0.98 points in 12 months. The rate among Individuals rose in the Midwest and North, naturally in line with the greater supply of credit. Although the most significant drop occurred in the Northeast (0.64 pp), the region leads the country in delinquency among Individuals (4.34%). Among legal entities, the biggest increase was in the Midwest (0.57 p.p) and Northeast (0.42 p.p), with a good drop in the Southeast (1.02 p.p). The Northeast also leads the way in defaults for Legal Entities (3.13%).
2025: Less positive, but still promising
Elias Sfeir believes that the scenario for 2025 is "less positive than in 2024". "The Selic rate is a determining factor for the expansion or retraction of credit, as it directly impacts access conditions," he points out. Despite this, the ANBC projects a growth of 9% in the credit balance for the year.
Credit vs. climate change
Climate change is among the additional challenges that the credit market sees for 2025. Climate phenomena generated economic losses of around US$ 320 billion globally in 2024. In Brazil, severe droughts and floods have impacted agriculture and water supplies in several states, including the Northeast, directly affecting payment capacity and, consequently, the supply of credit. According to Elias Sfeir, ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) commitments have a direct impact on companies' cash flow and governance, influencing the granting and management of credit. The issue can no longer be ignored.
João Santos Group prepares to sell assets
The João Santos Group is waiting for the Judicial Recovery plan, already approved by creditors, to be ratified in the next few days, so that it can begin selling its real estate assets, the vast majority of which are located in rural areas, such as the Santa Tereza mill in Goiana. According to João Rogério Filho, from PPK Consultoria, the expectation is to raise R$ 800 million with this demobilization, which will be used to pay tax obligations and creditors of Class-1, which brings together 23,000 workers.
Vibra advances in Brazil
Vibra, Brazil's largest fuel and lubricant distributor, has officially acquired Comerc Energia, consolidating its position as the country's largest multi-energy platform. The company will now control 100% of Comerc's operations and will have Clarissa Sadock as CEO. Comerc represents one of Vibra's growth avenues, which sees immediate opportunities to take advantage of R$ 1.4 billion in synergies from greater financial, operational and fiscal efficiency.
