Positive Registry could inject up to R$ 82 billion into rural credit

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Positive Register could inject up to R$ 82 billion into rural credit balance

Increase corresponds to 33% projected for the next ten years

A avaliação mais precisa do histórico de pagamento de compromissos como empréstimos, crediários e financiamentos, possibilitada pelo Cadastro Positivo, tem potencial para injetar até R$ 82 bilhões no saldo do crédito rural nos próximos 10 anos no país, o que equivale a um aumento de 33%. Com a entrada dessas informações na nota de crédito do produtor, a nova carteira de crédito rural poderá alcançar saldo de R$ 331 bilhões.

The conclusions are from the study Panorama of Credit for Agriculture and Livestock, which aims to help reduce transaction costs and consequently leverage the volume of credit.

The survey was carried out by the credit bureau sector, given the current downward trend in interest rates and the increase in the share of uncontrolled resources, those directed by the private sector.

O valor de crédito rural efetivamente contratado no ano agrícola 2018/2019 foi de R$ 175,4 bilhões, 3,5% maior que o contratado em 2017/2018. Desse montante, o valor contratado com recursos controlados foi de R$ 121,3 bilhões, 5,5% menor que o contratado em 2017/2018.

Contracts with non-controlled resources totaled R$ 54.2 billion, an increase of 31.5% compared to the previous agricultural year. Of these resources, the LCA (Agribusiness Credit Bill) was responsible for financing R$ 29.6 billion of the contracts in 2018/2019, which represented an increase of 23.8% compared to the previous agricultural year.

Playing a fundamental role in the economy, agriculture today has 5 million rural establishments, 350 million square hectares of usable area, as well as 8.5 million workers, whose monthly wage bill is R$ 11.5 billion.

The expectation is that this scenario will change with the visibility that rural producers will begin to have with the Positive Registry, since the information on their credit history will show their financial behavior as a whole, making a counterpoint to a situation of default that, due to some isolated fact, may have occurred.

“Em uma negociação com uma cooperativa, por exemplo, será estabelecida uma relação de confiança baseada na nota de crédito com inclusão do Cadastro Positivo, que certamente beneficiará o segmento, impulsionando o microcrédito e a economia”, afirma Elias Sfeir, presidente da Associação Nacional dos Bureaus de Crédito (ANBC).

“O levantamento indica uma forte tendência na expansão do rural credit e, consequentemente, um salto de desenvolvimento do agronegócio”, completa Sfeir.

Another expectation is that the Safra Plan, the federal government's program for financing agricultural activity, will also be impacted by the Positive Registry. The projection is that there will be an increase of R$ 74 billion in real terms (deflated) compared to 2019, going from R$ 225 to R$ 299 billion.

Além dos ganhos citados acima, o Positive data deve incluir 22 milhões de brasileiros no mercado de crédito e reduzir em 45% a inadimplência, fatores que podem impactar ainda mais o setor agrícola, pois u